Who gets to set the terms of sale?
Hi Daniel and many thanks for all your helpful articles.
The roubles-for-gas issue is of particular interest for me.
I have a few questions I am trying to clarify, I wonder if you might have any views:
1. Your schematic has Gazprombank (GpB) 'transferring' USD reserves to CBR.
My conception of this is that they would stay at GpB, CBR would have a USD deposit with GpB. Is this materially different? Does it have any impact on sanctions status?
2. The decree states the USD-RUB exchange will be carried out on the Moscow Stock Exchange by GpB as if there might be counterparties apart from CBR. I assume with sanctions this is not true?
3. I have seen reports that GpB is already required by Russian authorities to exchange 80% of their foreign ccy receipts into RUB, even without this decree. With what counterparty? if CBR, so how is it making use of the foreign ccy it is getting currently through this channel?
One explanation of all this is that despite all the concern over how much the West is contributing to Russia, thus far sanctions have stopped the Russian state accessing the foreign ccy gas receipts & this move is to allow the state to actually use them.
If not the issue seems cosmetic to me, more about perception than anything else.
Thanks for any views you care to offer.
I'm not professionally involved in this by the way, my interest is just personal, trying to understand the mechanics of an important topic.